Armenia, Azerbaijan: Karabakh cease-fire needs strengthening

by Emil Sanamyan

Published: Saturday October 30, 2010

Aliyev, Medvedev and Sargsyan in Astrakhan. Armenian president's office

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Washington - With deadly incidents continuing on Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev held yet another summit with Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, this time in the Russian city of Astrakhan on October 27.

As a result of the meeting, Presidents Serge Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev promised to do more to prevent cease-fire violations and as a first step "exchange prisoners of war and return remains of the dead" each side was currently holding (see below for the full statement).

President Medvedev also expressed hope that more headway in talks could be made before the OSCE summit in Kazakhstan that two presidents will be attending in early December.

There are few expectations that the sides are close to agreeing on basic principles of settlement. Instead international mediators have increasingly focused on threats to the cease-fire regime in place since May 1994 have.

With Azerbaijan continuing to invest heavily in its military and its leaders continuing to threaten to use force, President Barack Obama raised the issue with Aliyev in a meeting last month and defense ministers of Russia and the United States discussed it earlier this year.

But specific measures to reduce tensions proposed by international mediators - such as a pull out of snipers from the front line - have been rejected by Azerbaijan, which appears to be using border violence to pressure Armenia and international mediators.

Spike in violence

The Astrakhan meeting was a third between two leaders so far this year; first two took place in January in Sochi and in June in St. Petersburg, also mediated by the Russian president.

There were six such meetings in 2009 and four in 2008. The relative slow down in the tempo of talks has been paralleled by an increase in violent border incidents.

In June at least four Armenians and two Azerbaijanis were killed and in late August - early September at least four Azerbaijanis were killed in skirmishes that involved raids across the Line of Contact (LoC), the de-facto border.

In mid-September, an Armenian civilian was captured on Armenian-Azerbaijani border; he subsequently died in Azerbaijani detention in suspicious circumstances.

Since September at least three Armenian and two Azerbaijani soldiers were killed from apparent sniper fire, most recently on October 26 and 29, shortly before and after the Astrakhan meeting.

Together with casualties earlier this year, 2010 has already become one of the deadliest years for Armenian armed forces since the 1994 cease-fire.

Text of the declaration in English as it appeared on the Armenian president's web site:

Joint Declaration adopted after the trilateral meeting of the Presidents of Armenia, the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan in Astrakhan

27.10.2010

"On October 27, 2010 the Presidents of the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation met in Astrakhan at the invitation of the President of the Russian Federation and discussed thoroughly the process and the prospects of the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

Reaffirming the provisions of the Joint Declaration signed in Moscow on November 2, 2008, the Presidents underlined that the resolution of the conflict through the political and diplomatic means requires additional efforts aimed at the reinforcement of the cease-fire and enhancement of confidence building in the military sphere. Toward that end, the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as a first step, assisted by the Minsk Group and the International Committee of Red Cross, to immediately exchange prisoners of war and return remains of the dead, and driven by the humanistic nature of these issues, to act upon this principle hereafter."