Ankara drops the ball

Published: Thursday December 17, 2009

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What the Turkish prime minister did in Washington last week was nothing short of withdrawing from the agreement his government negotiated with Armenia over the last year and a half and signed amid great fanfare on October 10 in Zurich.

It was not a formal withdrawal, and he can still redeem himself if he so chooses. But there's little reason to believe that he will.

The Armenian government has initiated the steps it has to take in response. It is a good time to take the long view and see what next steps may be available.

Armenia's goodwill

The government of the newly independent Republic of Armenia in 1991 made the appropriate choice to have diplomatic relations with Turkey, its immediate neighbor. It made this decision in spite of the bitter memory of the Armenian Genocide of 1915–17, and the Turkish government's ongoing campaign to falsify history and pretend Armenians never existed in their occupied ancestral homeland. It made the decision in spite of the attempts over the last nine decades to crush the Armenians who remained in Turkey. It made the decision in spite of the Turkish government's choice to help Azerbaijan with military equipment and trainers in its war against the Armenians of Karabakh.

The basis of the decision was straightforward: Armenia was a newly independent country, looking to the future. Grievances could be addressed over time through diplomatic channels.

But in a further indication of hostility, the Turkish government declined to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia. In 1993, it went a step further and closed the borders between Turkey and Armenia in an attempt to starve Armenia and help Azerbaijan. A border that had remained open in the Cold War era was closed by the Turkish state.

The three administrations of Armenia since 1991 each remained in favor of diplomatic relations and open borders. Talks on various levels took place over the years, but the Turkish side continually insisted on using the closed border as leverage to extract concessions from Armenia.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

It appeared this year that a breakthrough in Armenia-Turkey relations might be at hand. In 2008, President Serge Sargsyan invited his Turkish counterpart to Armenia and initiated high-profile talks aimed at getting the border opened. Turkey had agreed to join Armenia in discussing normalization without preconditions.

When the protocols negotiated were unveiled on August 31, it appeared that Turkey was now willing to lift the blockade of Armenia without waiting for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

And yet, the Turkish prime minister was talking out of both sides of his mouth. On the one hand, he was agreeing to open the border on conditions laid out in the protocols; at the same time he was announcing that he would not open the border unless there was progress in the Karabakh talks.

The Armenian government was, of course, aware of the statements the Turkish prime minister was making. Nonetheless, with the support of the United States government, which insisted on no preconditions for normal relations, Yerevan proceeded with the talks and committed itself publicly to the protocols. The forward-looking attitude of the government was, "Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Turkey is reneging

Now the Turkish prime minister is saying that the Turkish parliament, in which the party he controls has a two-thirds majority, will not ratify the protocols unless there's what he deems to be progress in the Karabakh talks. In other words, he is reneging on the agreement.

President Sargsyan, in response, has indicated that Armenia's patience and tolerance is not unlimited. He will not allow the protocols to just sit there, signed but not ratified. If Ankara insists on conditions not included in the agreement, Yerevan is likely to withdraw from the agreement altogether.

In his interview with the Armenian Reporter, President Sargsyan noted that the collapse of the protocols would put the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations back by many years. The collapse of "soccer diplomacy" would also be a lost opportunity for progress in regional stability and integration, which are stated U.S. interests.

Whether President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and their subordinates can prevent this collapse – and get the Turkish government to open the border with Armenia – is a true test of American diplomatic skill and effectiveness.

Speaking to be heard

Now that the Turkish prime minister has announced that he is dropping the ball, a certain amount of time is needed to allow diplomats to try to save the day. In addition to Yerevan and the Obama administration, the other foreign ministers who showed up in Zurich for the signing – those of Russia, France, and Switzerland, and the European Union – have an obligation to act.

If, ultimately, they fail, and Armenia formally withdraws from the protocols, it will be essential for the Armenian government to explain the circumstances and articulate a vision for the future in a way that is very public. Turkey and its formidable public-relations machine cannot be allowed to dominate public opinion. Armenian high officials as well as independent scholars and analysts will need to speak in various settings in the United States and Europe and engage with the press.