Erdogan rules out ratification of protocols without progress on Karabakh (update 3)

On U.S. visit, Turkish leader challenges U.S. policies in Middle East

by Emil Sanamyan

Published: Saturday December 12, 2009

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a Washington press conference, Dec. 7, 2009. Armenian Reporter

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Washington - It is up to the Turkish parliament to ratify the agreements reached with Armenia, and ratification depends on progress in the Karabakh talks, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during a visit to the United States this week.

In October, Turkey and Armenia signed protocols on the normalization of relations, under the terms of which Turkey would lift its land blockade of Armenia, but the agreements can only take effect after parliamentary ratification. The protocols make no reference to Karabakh.

In an interview with PBS' Charlie Rose on December 8, the Turkish prime minister said that he did not believe the Turkish parliament would ratify the agreements without progress in the Karabakh talks.

In a press conference on December 7, he claimed that the parliament would vote "independently." Mr. Erdogan's political party has a two-thirds majority in parliament. He recalled the March 1, 2003 vote, in which the parliament refused to grant permission for the United States to use Turkish territory for ground attacks against Iraq.

[In Yerevan on December 10, President Serge Sargsyan said that Armenia is ready to ratify the protocols but also announced that he had “instructed relevant state bodies to prepare amendments to those of our laws that pertain to the signing, ratification, and abrogation of international agreements.” This statement is being interpreted as a warning that Armenia would annul the protocols “if Turkey drags out the ratification” of the agreements.]

At the press conference Mr. Erdogan said that France, Russia, and the United States, as mediators coordinating the talks, should infuse "more excitement, more enthusiasm in the Karabakh peace process and both Armenia and Azerbaijan need to rise to the occasion" to make progress.

Cengiz Candar, a prominent columnist and supporter of Armenian-Turkish normalization, agreed that without signs of progress in the Karabakh talks, chances for ratification were "slim."

In a comment to the Armenian Reporter, Mr. Candar noted that while a comprehensive resolution of the Karabakh dispute was difficult, mere signs of a specific commitment to resolution would make ratification of the protocols "plausible."

[In Yerevan, President Sargsyan said that Turkey’s attempts “to link Turkish-Armenian relations with the Nagorno-Karabakh problem”  were “a priori doomed to failure.”]

"The Turkish leadership has now formally rejected the Obama administration policies that normalization should proceed with 'no preconditions and within a reasonable timeframe,'" said Ross Vartian of the U.S.-Armenia Public Affairs Committee. "It is now incumbent upon President Obama deal with Turkish sabotage of U.S. interests and objectives."

Capitalizing on the protocols

Even without progress on Karabakh and parliamentary ratification, the Turkish government is already capitalizing on the Armenia-Turkey protocols as an example of its foreign policy successes.

Following his meeting with Mr. Erdogan, President Barack Obama said that he had "congratulated the Prime Minister on some courageous steps that he has taken around the issue of normalizing Turkish/Armenian relations, and encouraged him to continue to move forward along this path."

Similarly, Chuck Hagel, a former senator and now chair of the Atlantic Council of the United States, told the Armenian Reporter that he was "hopeful both sides will get" the protocols ratified. Mr. Hagel introduced Mr. Erdogan at a talk at the SETA Foundation on December 8.

But President Obama, who earlier this year called for normalization “with dispatch,” this week did not publicly emphasize timing. Nor did he speak publicly about the U.S. position that Armenia-Turkey talks should not be linked to progress in the Karabakh talks and that Turkey should confront its past treatment of Armenians. (See, however, the story, "U.S. insists on delinking Karabakh from Armenia-Turkey normalization.")

Denying the Genocide

Speaking at Johns Hopkins University later in the day, Mr. Erdogan repeated his contention that his "ancestors never committed genocide" and said, "that is not possible." (Speaking in reference to events in Sudan last month, Mr. Erdogan had similarly claimed, "It's not possible for a Muslim to commit genocide," according to Turkish media.)

When asked by Mr. Rose, "What more evidence does history need in respect with the [Armenian] genocide," Mr. Erdogan said he did not accept the Genocide and that it "was completely a lie," adding that more archival work was needed to establish what happened.

Asked by the Armenian Reporter at his press conference how an independent inquiry into the facts could proceed when an article of the Turkish penal code criminalizes speech on the Armenian Genocide, Mr. Erdogan tried to play down the article's importance, saying that only eight individuals have been prosecuted under it. He added that, under recent amendments, prosecution was possible only with the permission of his government.

"Erdogan came to U.S. to reinforce what he's accomplished" in talks with the United States and Armenia, said Aram Hamparian of the Armenian National Committee of America. "He is getting another American administration to be complicit in genocide denial."

Mr. Erdogan "made the blanket denial statements that are precisely at odds with what President Obama has said and Erdogan is taking [Mr. Obama's] silence as license to deny," Mr. Hamparian told the Armenian Reporter.