Sargsyan, Aliyev hold summit as Baku issues an ultimatum

Mediators frown on war talk, report “progress” and “difficulties”

by Maria Titizian

Published: Friday November 27, 2009

Presidents Serge Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev in Munich with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. RA President’s press office.

Related Articles

Mediators note progress and new hurdles

Ask Congress to help maintain the peace

Yerevan - The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan on November 22 held talks at the residence of the French consul general in Munich, Germany, on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. It was the sixth formal meeting of the two heads of state, but the first not to be held on the sidelines of another event. The talks were overshadowed by an ultimatum issued by Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev on the day before the summit.

"If that meeting ends without result, then our hopes in negotiations will be exhausted and then we are left with no other option," Mr. Aliyev announced on Azerbaijani television, according to The Associated Press. "We have the right to liberate our land by military means."

Mr. Aliyev has made several public threats to resume war, and indeed made such a threat on the eve of a June 6, 2008, summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia. What made the most recent statement exceptional was its focus on the summit of November 22 as the last chance for a peaceful settlement.

"Azerbaijan is spending billions on buying new weapons, hardware, strengthening its position on the line of contact," Mr. Aliyev had said in his comments broadcast on November 21. "We have the full right to liberate our land by military means."

War is not an option

Bernard Fassier, the French co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is mediating the Karabakh peace process, said in response to Mr. Aliyev, "In Moscow, Paris, and Washington our governments are of the opinion that war is not an option."

The Russian co-chair, Yuri Merzlyakov, reported that the co-chairs had "told the presidents that at this delicate moment of negotiations it's better to refrain from making disproportionate accusations toward each other and especially not to talk about the possibility of a forcible solution to the issue."

Samvel Farmanian, spokesperson for Armenia's President Serge Sargsyan, said Mr. Aliyev's threats "testify to Azerbaijan's unconstructive stance" in the negotiations. He added, "If the peace talks end and hostilities start, nothing will prevent the Republic of Armenia from recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh's independence."

During the summit, according to a joint statement of the co-chairs, "the two presidents engaged in a detailed and in-depth discussion of the most important unresolved points in the co-chairs' proposals. The talks, which lasted almost four hours, were constructive. In some areas, progress was made. At the same time, some issues still remain open."

Mr. Fassier said, "Some important progress has been reached, at the same time we have identified some difficulties."

Madrid Principles

The mediators seek to have Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on certain principles before drafting a final peace agreement. They have stated on numerous occasions that the assent of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been excluded from the talks with Azerbaijan, is also necessary. The principles, or framework agreement, on the table since November 2007 is called the Madrid Document. It is composed of 14 basic principles.

The Armenian Reporter's review of the still-secret document, reported on August 21, revealed that four basic principles are at the core of the proposed framework agreement: that the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be based on the principle of self-determination through a referendum, a plebiscite, a popular vote, or a legally binding expression of will; that certain territories must be returned; that internally displaced persons must have the chance to return; and that there must be security guarantees.

Armenia and Azerbaijan had been arguing around three basic issues. The first was when Kelbajar would be returned, with Armenia insisting that not happen until after the proposed referendum. The second was how the region of Lachin - beyond the narrow corridor around the Goris-Stepanakert Highway - would be dealt with. The third was the status of the Lachin corridor.

The co-chairs would not elaborate on the actual issues discussed in Munich this week.

Possible panic

According to Armenian officials, the focus of the talks was the final status of Karabakh, the matter that, along with security, is most important for the Armenian side. A focus on status, rather than the three longstanding sticking points, may be a reflection of Armenian confidence on the heels of progress on the Armenia-Turkey track.

In the week after the summit, Mr. Aliyev travelled to Russia and met with President Dmitri Medvedev. The occasion was the inauguration of a bridge named after Mr. Aliyev's late father, Heydar Aliyev, in Lenin's birthplace, Ulyanovsk. The elder Mr. Aliyev had been a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in the 1980s and was involved in the decision to build the bridge.

Baku understands it is losing leverage in the conflict as relations warm between Ankara and Yerevan, according to Svante Cornell, an area specialist at Johns Hopkins University who is associated with the Azerbaijani lobby. "There is a kind of panic where the Azeris are thinking that if they don't get a solution now, they'll never get anything," Mr Cornell was quoted by The National as saying. "There is a clear sense of urgency. They want Armenia and the rest of the world to understand how they see things."

The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to meet again on December 1-2 on the sidelines of an OSCE ministerial conference in Athens.