InternationalArmenia and Turkey: a matter of timing
Published: Thursday October 01, 2009
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In an exclusive interview with the Armenian Reporter this week, Armenia's President Serge Sargsian addressed some concerns about the protocols on the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations.
He addressed our concern "that the existence of a bilateral commission gives credence to the Turkish position that the answer to the question, ‘Was there a genocide?' is not yet known." President Sargsian noted that the agenda of the commission would be set jointly by Armenia and Turkey and said. "Those who are concerned should realize that the representatives of the government of Armenia will never allow issues to be formulated in a way that could be insulting to the Armenian people."
Since the president is already committed to avoiding any formulation that would question the fact of the Genocide, we reiterate the suggestion, made by this page on September 5 and again last week, that the limitations on the agenda of the historical commission be incorporated into the parliamentary resolution on the ratification of the protocols. Such a provision would make ratification more palatable to members of the National Assembly.
In response to another question we posed, the president said that the negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have a long way to go yet, and he would not be signing a framework agreement anytime soon. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Recep Teyyip Erdogan of Turkey repeated as recently as last week his promise that Turkey would not open the border with Armenia as long as the Karabakh issue is not resolved to Turkey's satisfaction.
The protocols call for the opening of the border, so unless the prime minister plans to renege on a document ratified by the Turkish parliament, his likely plan is to hold up parliamentary ratification of the protocols.
The Armenian side thus faces the following dilemma: Should the National Assembly, in which Mr. Sargsian is believed to have the votes to get the protocols ratified, act promptly on ratification? If it ratifies the protocols and does so promptly, it would show the world that any holdup is on the Turkish side. Or should it wait and act in concert with its Turkish counterpart?
We would urge the Armenian side to wait.
There can be no doubt at this point of President Sargsian's commitment to the ratification of the protocols. He has mobilized the various entities under government influence - ranging from scholars on the state payroll to the Public Council chaired by former prime minister Vazgen Manukian - to lend their strong support to the protocols, and he is headed to the diaspora to drum up additional support.
The Turkish government, on the other hand, is revealing its ambivalence by threatening not to open the border notwithstanding the agreement it has negotiated. So it should be pretty clear to anyone watching that the any delay is from the Turkish side.
On the other hand, Armenia would lose any influence it may have if its National Assembly ratifies the protocols and Turkey's parliament takes its time. Perhaps Turkey's parliament will set the protocols aside for a few months. Or perhaps they will examine the matter at length, with some members finding grounds to attack and insult Armenia. In either case, Armenia, having acted quickly, will have no further role or leverage in the process.
In such a situation, Armenia will have made and ratified the concessions contained in the protocols, and will not even receive an open border in return. It is best to let the Turkish parliament go first in this instance.
