Reservations about the Armenia-Turkey agreement

Published: Thursday September 03, 2009

The publication on August 31 of protocols initialed by the foreign ministries of Armenia and Turkey on the normalization of relations between the two countries allows for a more informed and serious assessment of developments than has been hitherto possible.

Negotiations between Ankara and Yerevan on the normalization of relations have taken place on and off ever since Armenia's independence. Until the latest round that began in mid-2008, the negotiations have taken place in secret, at Armenia's insistence, so that the very existence of dialogue is not used by Turkey for political advantage.

What Armenia and Turkey want

In these talks, Armenia has sought only normal relations. At first, that meant simply the establishment of diplomatic relations. When Turkey began its blockade of Armenia in 1993, "normal relations" came to mean also the opening of the border.

Turkey, in turn, has sought three things. First, it has sought from Armenia an end to the international campaign for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Second, it has sought a formal declaration that Armenia has no territorial demands from Turkey. And third, it has sought to help Azerbaijan achieve its goals in Karabakh; the closed border was supposed to starve Armenians into concessions to Azerbaijan. These items are Turkey's three preconditions for the normalization of relations.

Armenia too could have set certain preconditions for having normal relations with Turkey. Armenia, rather than Turkey, might have made demands regarding the Armenian Genocide - that Turkey acknowledge the crime against humanity, honor the memory of the victims, and commit to a program of reparations.

But Armenia took the position that neighbors should by default have open borders and diplomatic relations; existing issues could be resolved in the fullness of time through diplomacy. So Armenia set no preconditions - and until now had accepted no preconditions.

The position that neighbors should have normal relations, and that no concessions should be made as a condition for normal relations is a sound one. The blockade has not starved Armenia. In spite of the asymmetry of size, wealth, and power between Armenia and Turkey, Armenia is not so desperate as to have to make onerous concessions in exchange for an end to the Turkish blockade.

The protocols published on August 31 would, if ratified by the parliaments of the two countries, normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey. This is what Armenia sought. The question, of course, is what price Armenia has paid or will pay for normal relations, and whether that price is too high.

It appears now that the price is too high.

The historical commission

The first thing Turkey sought from Armenia was an end to the international campaign for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

Armenia could not directly grant Turkey that wish, since it cannot stop Armenians worldwide from pursuing that campaign. Turkey's counter was to call for the establishment of a high-profile commission of historians who would take their time and debate whether the Armenian Genocide was a reality. By acceding to such a commission, with such terms of reference, Armenia would become complicit in questioning the veracity of the Genocide.

Meanwhile, parliaments worldwide could be prevailed upon to withhold judgment until the commission finished its work - which would be interminably delayed.

In the protocols, Armenia has unfortunately agreed to the establishment of a commission "on the historical dimension." This commission is to engage in an "impartial scientific examination." Although the protocol does not specify what issues the commission is to examine, Turkey clearly intends for it to question the veracity of the Genocide.

This land is my land

The second thing Turkey sought was a formal declaration that Armenia has no territorial demands from Turkey.

A large part of the Armenian plateau, the cradle of Armenian civilization, where Armenians lived for thousands of years, is now part of the Turkish state. The fact that the Turkish state deliberately destroyed the Armenian population, along with certain treaties signed in the early 1920s, has given rise to Armenian territorial claims against Turkey.

Nonetheless, each of Armenia's three presidents has explicitly said that Armenia makes no territorial claims against Turkey. The protocols unnecessarily confirm "the mutual recognition of the existing border between the two countries as defined by the relevant treaties of international law."

Even if the inclusion of this language may have no practical effect, it means that Armenia has agreed to Turkey's second precondition.

No mention of Karabakh

The third thing Turkey sought as a condition for normalizing relations was to help Azerbaijan achieve its goals in Karabakh.

And that is exactly what had made the publication of the protocols at this time surprising for many observers.

In Istanbul on April 6, President Barack Obama said talks between Armenia and Turkey could "bear fruit very quickly very soon." In response, Turkey's President Abdullah Gül said a breakthrough was not imminent, noting that "issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan" must first be resolved.

On April 19 Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that point. He said, "A decision to open the border gate with Armenia will depend on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue being solved. If the Armenian occupation of Azeri territory continues, Turkey will not open its border gate." He has reiterated the point more than once since then.

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