InternationalA dream come true for Turkey
Published: Thursday September 03, 2009
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Yerevan - At the start of 2007, Switzerland expressed a desire to mediate in the continuation of the Yerevan-Ankara dialogue, which had stopped in 2004. Secret meetings between Armenia and Turkey had been taking place in Vienna, with Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakossian representing Armenia. Ankara was on notice that if it leaked news of the secret talks, Yerevan would officially deny that they had been taking place.
A public process
There were four points on the agenda of those talks. Two of the points - ending the blockade and the establishment of diplomatic relations - were put on the agenda by Armenia. The other two - mutual recognition of borders and the establishment of a commission - had been added by Turkey. When the new president and foreign minister came to office in April 2008, these talks were resumed.
The secret talks became "soccer diplomacy" and the process became not only public but was actively publicized by both the Armenian and Turkish states and in leading international media outlets. This was what Turkey wanted, so it could show the world that it was talking to the Armenians, and could say, "Let no one disturb this process by raising the matter of the Armenian Genocide in various legislatures."
The protocols published on August 31 make it clear that Turkey has gotten what it was not able to get for the last 17 years from the two former administrations of Armenia: Yerevan has agreed to the formation of a commission (or a sub-commission, it doesn't matter, for it is clear that all the other sub-commissions have been included in the documents only to justify the creation of that one sub-commission "on the historical dimension.") In return, Armenia has received a promise that the border will be opened - and that promise has been formulated in such a way as to obscure just who had closed the border in the first place.
Turkey can, without difficulty, kill the protocols by voting them down in parliament. If in March 2003 the same parliament and the same governing AK Party could say "no" to the United States, Turkey's ally, preventing the United States from waging war in Iraq from Turkish territory, then they can surely say "no" to opening the border with Armenia. Perhaps the greatest mistake of the Armenian side has been to agree to Ankara's demand to make the protocols subject to parliamentary ratification. This is the first time in Armenia's history that a protocol is being sent to the National Assembly for ratification.
Mr. Kocharian's proposal
In an April 2005 letter to the president of Armenia, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had proposed establishing "a joint group consisting of historians and other experts from our two countries to study the developments and events of 1915." The president at the time, Robert Kocharian, had rejected the establishment of historians' commission.
He had written in response, "It is the responsibility of governments to develop bilateral relations and we do not have the right to delegate that responsibility to historians. That is why we have proposed and propose again that, without pre-conditions, we establish normal relations between our two countries. In that context, an intergovernmental commission can meet to discuss any and all outstanding issues between our two nations, with the aim of resolving them and coming to an understanding."
Is the sub-commission foreseen by the protocols the one Mr. Kocharian had suggested in his response? No. Absolutely not. It is true that with his silence today, Mr. Kocharian has allowed many people to think otherwise. In reality, Mr. Kocharian proposed to create an intergovernmental commission to find ways to overcome the difficult and bitter past in Armenian-Turkish relations. He was suggesting a discussion about how to move forward - in essence a political discussion.
The terminology used in the August 31 protocols, "impartial scientific examination," "historical records and archives," "Armenian, Turkish as well as Swiss and international experts," suggests a dangerous project to rewrite the history of 1915. That is something the Turks could only dream about in years past, but the dream is now coming true with the cooperation of Armenia's government.
Rewriting history
But that's not the whole story. It is quite likely that the debate on the ratification of the protocols in the Turkish Grand National Assembly will become an anti-Armenian campaign; the protocols will likely be treated as a betrayal of the Turkish nation, and Turkey will seek to wring new concessions from Armenia.
In reality, it doesn't matter whether these protocols are ratified in the Turkish parliament. What matters for Turkey is that they have received a written agreement in principle from Armenia. Even if the protocols are defeated in the Turkish parliament, and the border remains closed, the fact will remain on the record that Armenia was willing to acquiesce in a commission that would cast doubt on the veracity of the Armenian Genocide.
The Turks and Azerbaijanis could well be working hand in hand, as they have all along. Turkey could be warming up to Armenia with assurances that Armenian forces will be removed even from Kelbajar. As much as they may say that the processes are parallel, it is clear that progress in the Armenia-Turkey track will affect the Karabakh track and vice versa. In other words, the processes are connected in terms of timing.
It is possible that no progress will be made in the Karabakh issue and the Armenia-Turkey border will remain closed. But that's not what matters; what matters is that Turkey got what it wanted, the possibility of rewriting the most tragic page of Armenian history, the history of the Armenian Genocide.
