InternationalA prolonged and indefinite process with Turkey awaits Armenia
Yerevan remains cautiously optimistic about establishing relations
Published: Thursday June 04, 2009
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Yerevan - When pirates seize a ship, they may demand a ransom for releasing it. When terrorists take a hostage, they seek to squeeze out some sort of political advantage.
Turkey, which maintains a land blockade of Armenia, wishes to negotiate with Armenia from the position of a pirate or a terrorist.
Turkey's high-ranking officials go farther. They publicly accuse Armenia of seizing territory. This weighty charge is made by a state that has carried out genocide and has deprived an entire population of its native land, sentencing the Armenian people to exile.
The first year of soccer diplomacy is coming to an end, but Armenian-Turkish relations on the ground remain as they were in 1993. That's when Turkey, in solidarity with Azerbaijan, blockaded Armenia.
If Ankara's goal were really to establish normal relations with Yerevan – which is what the authorities in Armenia say they believe – then Turkey would need first to end its blockade. In that case, Turkey's assurances that it aims to establish relations and be neighborly with Armenia would gain credence.
In fact, Turkey's leaders today continue the longstanding policy of setting preconditions for Armenia.
A concert in Ankara
If in the past Turkey's top leaders were unanimous in their public statements, there are now certain differences. It is likely that they have apportioned roles among themselves. The first violin, the military, is silent for now. President Abdullah Gül is proper toward Armenia and avoids insulting language. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan constantly accuses Armenians and Armenia of being aggressors and seizing territory. The foreign minister generally maintains the decorum associated with senior diplomats.
In Armenia's case, there is no such division of roles. The top members of the administration remain unanimously optimistic that Turkey will open the border. They make no insulting statements about Armenia's western neighbor. They do not use international forums to raise the issue of the Armenian Genocide. Moreover, along with soccer diplomacy, they are engaged in nuclear diplomacy; the Armenian authorities have indicated that Turkey can participate in the construction of Armenia's new nuclear power plant and hold shares in it.
In the Armenian-Turkish negotiation process, Mr. Gül negotiates with his Armenian counterpart Serge Sargsian. In Turkey, the president's constitutional powers are much more restricted than in Armenia. The president of Turkey – and Mr. Gül in particular – is not the Turk who decides whether to open the border with Armenia and whether to establish diplomatic relations.
Mr. Erdogan is the head of government, but he is not the official, the Turk, who has the final say in critical matters in Turkey.
The final say in Turkey goes to the Deep State, in which the general staff of the armed forces have a big part. The general staff has obvious hostility toward Armenia. The most recent example of that is Sari Gelin's movie, which not only denies the Armenian Genocide, but accuses Armenians of treason and killing Turks.
The main forwards in soccer diplomacy are the foreign ministers of the two countries. Turkey until recently was represented by Ali Babacan, who was an exceptionally weak foreign minister and could not even control his ambassadors. It was with Mr. Babacan that Armenia's foreign minister, Edward Nalbandian, was negotiating. Turkey's new foreign minister is Ahmet Davutoglu, who has already found the time to visit Baku and fire a warning shot to Armenia from there: "The occupied territories of Azerbaijan must be liberated. I want to assure our Azerbaijani brothers once again that the Karabakh issue and the issue of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia are very important for Turkey, and no one should harbor any doubts about that," he said, according to Today's Zaman.
Karabakh linkage
Armenia's authorities react in a pained manner to these statements, which essentially say that Turkey once more took advantage of Armenians' goodwill, that it uses soccer diplomacy exclusively to its own advantage, and that it has no intention of ending its policy of hostility toward Armenia. Armenia's authorities are especially concerned about statements and actions indicating that Ankara seeks to link Armenian-Turkish relations with Nagorno-Karabakh – and is succeeding in doing so.
Armenian-Turkish relations and the Karabakh issue are indeed linked. That is a painful reality for which neither the first, nor the second, nor the third, current president of Armenia is to blame. The fact is that in April 1993, Turkey unilaterally closed the border and since then has pursued the same hostile policy. And as long as Turkey has not opened the border with Armenia, it is continuing to link Armenian-Turkish relations and the Karabakh issue. In the last two months, Prime Minister Erdogan has said at least six or seven times that as long as Armenian forces have not left "Azerbaijan's sacred patrimony," Turkey will not open the border.
The Armenian authorities cannot silence Mr. Erdogan, of course, but should they respond to him?
For example, when Mr. Erdogan announces once a week that Armenians are occupiers and have annexed land belonging to the Turks' brothers, the Azerbaijanis, could the prime minister of Armenia note publicly that Turkey occupies a large part of historical Armenia and has massacred the Armenian people? Neither Armenia's prime minister, nor the president, nor the foreign minister responds to Mr. Erdogan, thinking perhaps that their silence will help the progress of Armenian-Turkish soccer diplomacy and that one day thus Turkey will open the border.
