Home / Opinion / Editorial

Take steps to prevent a new war

Published: Thursday February 12, 2009

The message that President Serge Sargsian delivered at the Munich Security Conference on February 7 is one that we in the United States should embrace and spread.

The main concern of the president's speech was how to prevent the next Caucasus war. He made three main points. (See the full text here.)

War preparations

First, recalling the volatility of the South Caucasus, President Sargsian said, "The arms race, the substantial expansion of military budgets, and militaristic rhetoric charge the atmosphere." The point is an obvious one, but it needs to be made and emphasized. In threatening war and preparing for aggression, Azerbaijan is playing with a fire that it will not necessarily be able to control. Its threats of war and preparations are ignored at the considerable peril of everyone with a stake in regional peace and stability.

As Armenian-Americans, we should call on the administration and Congress to take Azerbaijani war preparations much more seriously.

When asked in the past, State Department representatives have confirmed that threats of war are unhelpful; they have included the nonuse of force among the principles on the basis of which the Karabakh conflict should be resolved. This is good, but much more can be done and needs to be done.

Beyond the generic statements made to date, the United States needs specifically to criticize each occurrence of a threat of renewed aggression, and this criticism should come with sanctions attached. Specifically, Azerbaijan should not receive U.S. military assistance so long as it continues to threaten Armenia and Armenians. Azerbaijan can afford to buy its own arms, but the United States should not provide additional weapons and training while Azerbaijan insists on playing a destabilizing and destructive role in the region.

The Cold War is over

Second, the president reminded his listeners that the Cold War was over. This too was a timely declaration.

As Georgia's leaders in recent years chose to reject their country's longstanding security relationship with Russia and to pursue full membership in the U.S.-led NATO alliance, old Cold War attitudes became more prevalent in Washington and Moscow alike. But the cold war turned hot in August, to the detriment of Georgia.

Unlike Georgia, Armenia has maintained its close security relationship with Russia even as it worked closely with NATO through the Partnership for Peace program, and participated in multilateral efforts in Iraq and Kosovo.

President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton, and some leading members of Congress have spoken in favor of a working with Russia as a partner in nuclear disarmament and other priorities. But advocates for a confrontational approach to U.S.-Russia relations are strong and vocal, and the temptation is always there. Countering them will take special effort on our part as Americans with a more direct stake in securing peace in the South Caucasus neighborhood.

Futility of blockades

Third, President Sargsian argued, "the time for political railroads, roads, and pipelines is over." He was referring to projects like a rail line that will connect Azerbaijan and Turkey over Georgia, bypassing the existing Tbilisi-Gyumri-Kars railroad - which was operational even during the Cold War but has since been stopped. The world financial crisis, he said, provides an opportunity to rethink expensive, politically determined plans that make little economic sense.

It is indeed likely that large-scale investments in the region will feel the impact of the financial crisis. (Armenia's planned new nuclear power plant may be among them.) The governments of the countries in which the projects are implemented will want to continue: they need to be on the lookout for ready-to-go major public works projects to fund as a way of stimulating growth. For foreign governments, a political element will always remain. One concern will be energy security - a good reason to include Armenia and not rely only on Georgia as a transit route between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Another concern will be peace - further reason to include Armenia.

On the other hand, foreign governments will be under pressure to keep funding for large-scale projects at home rather than abroad. In the United States, we should send a clear message in favor of investing in projects that include and integrate Armenia.

As Armenian-Americans we can feel some reassurance in knowing that we are not alone in wanting to see peace in the South Caucasus. But we must work particularly hard to ensure that the United States does its part in preventing the next war.

To their credit, our community's advocacy organizations in Washington have already presented a number of consensus action items to our friends in Congress and to the Obama administration under the general framework of preventing the next war.  They have urged American leadership on securing nonuse of force commitments from each conflicting party, on ending the arms race that distorts budgets, and on effectively confronting Azerbaijan over its recurring threats to launch another war.