InternationalSix Questions for Professor R.H. Dekmejian
“Change we can believe in”
by Vincent Lima
Published: Tuesday January 20, 2009
Professor Richard Hrair Dekmejian at a USC banquet for Armenia’s president, Oct. 19, 2007. Helena Gregorian for the Armenian Reporter
Barack Obama was elected president of the United States on a platform of "change we can believe in." He has promised to make significant changes in foreign policy.
As the new administration engages in a comprehensive policy review, the foreign-policy team is looking not only at policies but at how U.S. interests are defined. This period of transition is a rare opportunity for Armenian-Americans to weigh in and speak out in favor of definitions and approaches that benefit Armenians as well as Americans.
To help us think through these opportunities, we asked the distinguished political scientist Richard Hrair Dekmejian to answer six questions about the shaping of U.S. foreign policy in the Obama administration. (In our January 3 issue, we published an article on the same topic by Prof. Ronald Grigor Suny.)
Richard Hrair Dekmejian is a professor of political science at the University of Southern California College, and a professor of international business at the university's Marshall School. He is the director of the USC Institute of Armenian Studies. His expertise includes Middle Eastern and Islamic studies, the study of political elites, multinational business and politics, U.S. foreign policy, the political economy of oil, and comparative ethnic politics. Professor Dekmejian received his doctorate from Columbia University and went to USC in 1986 as chair of the Department of Political Science.
His books include Islam in Revolution
Engaging Iran
Vincent Lima: The isolation of Iran, Armenia's southern neighbor, has long been a U.S. foreign-policy priority. But President-elect Barack Obama is promising a new approach toward Iran. He sees engagement and respect as starting points. As someone who has made a study of leadership practices in the Middle East, what would you say the administration needs to do for its new approach to succeed?
Richard Hrair Dekmejian: Mr. Obama's promise to engage Iran in negotiations represents a major change in U.S. foreign policy. If successful, the Obama initiative will greatly benefit the whole Middle East region, as well as the United States, Israel, the Arab countries, and, indeed, Armenia. As Iran is the only neighboring country with which Armenia has close ties, what happens to Iran is extremely important for Armenia.
In order to succeed, the United States would need to open direct negotiations with Iran at a very high level, addressing the whole spectrum of key issues - economic, strategic, nuclear, and regional. At some point, the policy change should involve the establishment of direct diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran and a clear U.S. statement ending our traditional pursuit of regime change in Iran.
Prevailing on Turkey
Lima: The United States appears to have an interest in seeing Armenia's real or perceived dependence on Russia reduced. Helping open the Armenian-Turkish border is a way to do that. Knowing what you know about Turkey's leadership - civilian and military - what would you say the U.S. can do to help prevail on Turkey to open the land border with Armenia?
Dekmejian: It is true that the Clinton and Bush administrations have played a disruptive and dangerous role in the periphery of the former Soviet Union, seeking to reduce Russian influence in formerly communist states. The negative consequences of these policies to project U.S. power have been manifested in Ukraine's Orange Revolution, Georgia's Rose Revolution, similar adventures in Armenia, and oil and gas controversies in Eastern Europe and the Caspian region.
I do not expect that opening the Turkish border will decrease Armenia's strategic and economic dependence on Russia.
And given the deep splits within Turkey's leadership, I do not foresee the opening of the land border in the near future. Moreover, I am not at all sure that such an opening would significantly contribute to Armenia's economy, although it might help some big businesspeople on both sides to become richer.
Lima: In October 2007 we heard many warnings about the dire consequences that could ensue for the United States if Congress were to acknowledge the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide. I expect we will hear some of the same warnings in the coming weeks and months. What are the possible consequences, in fact, of acknowledgment of the Genocide by the president and Congress?
