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Russia brokers Armenia-Azerbaijan commitment to “a political settlement,” more talks

Declaration is first major development in peace process since 1994 cease-fire

Short on substance

by Emil Sanamyan

Published: Sunday November 02, 2008

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, right, seen with Armenia's President Serge Sargsian, center, and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, as they shake hands, during a meeting at Meiendorf Castle outside Moscow, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2008. AP Photo: RIA-Novosti, Dmitry Astakhov, Presidential Press Service

Washington - The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, meeting on the invitation of the Russian president in Moscow on November 2, pledged to reach "a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict" via intensified talks mediated by Russia, the United States, and France.

The text of the five-point declaration was read out by President Dmitry Medvedev on Russian television and carried in full by the Regnum news agency.

In substance, the declaration does little more than reiterate the parties' previously announced readiness to achieve a settlement through continued negotiations. It painstakingly avoids contentious issues and waters down any language that could be interpreted as a concession by either Armenia or Azerbaijan.

But the very fact of the declaration is likely to renew expectations for a peaceful settlement and provide for an important milestone in the peace process. Not since May 1992 have the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a declaration of this kind.

Russian mediation, coming soon after the war in Georgia and Russian recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, is meant to reaffirm Russia's leadership role in the South Caucasus.

No commitment to the nonuse of force

The tortured language of the declaration is almost as important in what it painstakingly avoids to say through omission or deliberate vagueness as in what it says.

The first point commits the parties to a "political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict." Importantly, it does not commit parties to maintain the cease-fire in place or the nonuse of force.

A political settlement, the declaration says, would be on "the basis of principles and norms of international law and solutions and documents adopted in their frames." It does not mention territorial integrity or self-determination or any specific solution or document.

The second point refers to developing "basic principles of a political settlement" in the future. Importantly, it refers to the "meeting" between the mediators, Armenia, and Azerbaijan during the OSCE Ministerial in Madrid in November 2007, rather than the principles offered by the mediators at that meeting. In effect the declaration leaves room for a substantial deviation from the so-called Madrid principles.

The third point stresses the need for "legally binding international guarantees of all . . . aspects and stages" of a peaceful settlement. The purpose of this point is not immediately clear. But it does mention "peaceful settlement" and "international guarantees" favored by Armenia, and "stages" favored by Azerbaijan.

The fourth point reiterates the presidents' commitment to continue with the settlement format in place since 1999 - bilateral meetings of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan along with the three co-chairs, with occasional meetings of the two presidents.

The fifth point refers to the need for "confidence-building measures." Such measures have long been advocated by Armenia and the mediators; but far from committing Azerbaijan to dropping its hate rhetoric and implementing such measures, the declaration only stresses the importance of "promoting the creation of conditions" for the implementation of such measures.

The absence of any possibly controversial passage from the declaration confirms the impression that the Russian mediators wanted very much to have the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents sign a joint declaration at the end of the summit initiated by Russia.

An important milestone

Although largely devoid of meaningful commitment to a peaceful settlement, the declaration is nevertheless historically important, since only twice before have leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed declarations committing themselves to finding a settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

The first was a joint communiqué (declaration) signed on September 23, 1991, in Zhelznovodsk, Russia, by Presidents Levon Ter-Petrossian and Ayaz Mutalibov, with President Boris Yeltsin of Russia and President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan. That declaration pledged a cease-fire and the annulment of both Armenia's decision to reunify with Karabakh and of Azerbaijan's decision to abolish Karabakh's autonomy; the declaration was followed by intensification in violence and a full-scale war in Karabakh.

The last time Armenian and Azerbaijani heads of state signed a joint declaration was in Tehran on May 7, 1992. That declaration was signed by President Ter-Petrossian, Azerbaijan's acting president Yaqub Mamedov, and Iran's President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The declaration was followed by the first major Armenian military success in Karabakh - the liberation of Shushi - and the subsequent overthrow of Mr. Mamedov.

President Ter-Petrossian and President Heydar Aliyev later acceded to declarations by the heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Moscow in April 1994 and the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) in Budapest in December 1994 that called for efforts to achieve a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict, which continue to this day.

The May 1994 cease-fire agreement, mediated by Russia, was signed by the speakers of parliament of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and subsequently endorsed by the defense ministers of the three republics.

Russian leadership

More than anything, the Meiendorf Castle declaration of November 2 sought to underscore the leadership role played by Russia in the South Caucasus.