Who is hostage to whom?

by Tatul Hakobyan

Published: Saturday September 27, 2008

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Yerevan - In Armenia, especially after Mr. Gül's visit, some people have begun to believe that Ankara wishes to establish good relations with Yerevan and lift the blockade, and Azerbaijan is the obstacle. Turkey is supposedly Azerbaijan's hostage. This belief is of course baseless; Turkey, many times stronger than Azerbaijan, cannot become a hostage to a much weaker Azerbaijan. Turkey simply does not wish to end its hostile policy toward Armenia and for that reason uses the Karabakh issue as an excuse. It clearly understands that the issue is not conducive to a resolution and so uses it to somehow justify a permanent anti-Armenian policy in Ankara.

Masis Mayilian, former deputy foreign minister of Karabakh, recalls Turkey's hostile policy regarding Karabakh since 1918 and says that Ankara takes two positions today: on the one han, it openly defends Azerbaijan's interests; on the other, as a member of the Minsk Group it is considered a mediator.

"Turkey can play a positive role if it quits defending one side in the conflict and adopts a neutral policy. Turkey has special influence on Azerbaijan, and in case of a constructive and objective approach, Ankara can help make the region more secure," Mr. Mayilian said in an interview with the Armenian Reporter.

"Turkey has to traverse a long road of trust building to be able to play a serious role with the Armenian sides," Tevan Poghosian, president of the Armenian Atlantic Association, said in an interview with the Armenian Reporter. But, he added, "Any chance for meeting should be used; any opportunity for opinion sharing, for discussion should be welcomed and not missed."

Mr. Poghosian said countries in the region have begun to meet at their own initiative, without others arranging meetings for them. "The shift in Turkish understanding that they have to make move on trust building and not simply and bluntly support Azerbaijan is welcome; it is time Turkey started to implement a policy regarding its neighbor based on its own interests, and not be under siege of the Azerbaijani position."

While "any initiatives and meeting is welcomed," Mr. Pogosian said, "expectations are limited."
He recalled "the attempt of Oskanian and Gül, in their capacity as foreign ministers, who met three times, but instead of progress we reached nothing. Hope always exists for good, but caution is still high as societies and government should work hard on trust building."

On the question of expectation, Mr. Pogosian said, "I don't have much to say as it will be a first meeting, but I hope that it will lay down the foundation that Turkey will start to build trust and also its own policy on normalization of its relationship with Armenia that will lead to establishment of diplomatic relationship and opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia. Only after that we can start to think about future actions that will lead to peaceful and prosperous region."

Washington-based political scintest Richard Giragosian thinks "Turkey no longer seeks to merely support Azerbaijan by pressuring Armenia.

"In fact, the new Turkish engagement of Armenia, ranging from the secret talks to the high-profile visit to Yerevan by the Turkish president, actually represents a significant shift in Turkish policy away from its traditional close support for Azerbaijan. This was most clearly demonstrated by the strong negative reaction by Azerbaijani officials to the Turkish opening toward Armenia, as Azerbaijani leaders are now gravely concerned and worried. The Azerbaijani leadership is worried that the potential for normal Turkish relations with Armenia and the opening of the long-closed Turkish border with Armenia will only weaken their position regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue," Mr. Giragosian said in an interview with the Armenian Reporter.

Mr. Giragosian assumes that the Turkish engagement with Armenia has also weakened the Turkish position on Karabakh.

"Although it can be argued that a Turkish move to build relations with Armenia may grant them more power over the Karabakh issue, in reality Turkey's engagement with Armenia has already seriously weakened and undermined its relations with Azerbaijan. This decline in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations and the now widening divide between Ankara and Baku will only prevent Turkey from assuming a greater role over the Karabakh issue and will only further widen the division between Azerbaijan and Turkey," he said.

In Stepanakert, political scientist Davit Babayan sees the invigoration of Armenia-Turkey relations in the context of global geopolitical developments, but he thinks that the new situation in the region will also influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

"But the Karabakh conflict resolution process will enter a passive stage. The Karabakh issue is so complex that it can have a decisive effect on global geopolitical processes. For that very reason, it is important now to clarify the expectations and foreign policy perspectives of the powers engaged in regional developments," he said in an interview with the Armenian Reporter.