Opposition turns down the heat on the government

The human factor plays a role

by Tatul Hakobyan

Published: Saturday September 20, 2008

The opposition’s latest rally in Yerevan, Sept. 15, 2008. Photolure.

Yerevan - For all its stridency, the recent rhetoric coming from Levon Ter-Petrossian, Armenia's first president, signals a less confrontational approach than the one he was taking in the first months after the presidential election in February. And there is a change in the attitude of President Serge Sargsian as well.

Any expectation that autumn would see a popular uprising in Armenia will remain unfulfilled.
On September 15, during the most recent in an ongoing series of mass gatherings in central Yerevan, Mr. Ter-Petrossian proclaimed that the movement led by him would remain loyal to the "lawful path of struggle." He would not allow the government to lead the domestic political struggle to "rough physical confrontation," which, he claimed, is the government's aim.

The rallies usually conclude with a march through the city center. But this time, heeding the "request and demand" of the police, the organizers called off the march. This fact is at least consistent with the contention that Mr. Ter-Petrossian has chosen to turn down the heat. The government, too, is taking steps that directly or indirectly contribute to overcoming the domestic political crisis.

There is no indication that Mr. Ter-Petrossian and Mr. Sargsian have reached an agreement among themselves. But the abyss that existed prior to the presidential election, and especially during the first months of the post-election period, no longer exists.

Old allies

The human factor is important.

Mr. Sargsian differs from his immediate predecessor, Robert Kocharian, in his human qualities. Relations between Mr. Ter-Petrossian and Mr. Sargsian differ from relations between Mr. Ter-Petrossian and Mr. Kocharian. In the beginning of the 1990s, during the rule of the Armenian National Movement (ANM), led by Mr. Ter-Petrossian, Mr. Kocharian and Mr. Sargsian were the ANM's allies in Nagorno-Karabakh against or as a counterbalance to the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF).

In August 1993, Mr. Sargsian was appointed Armenia's defense minister and moved to Yerevan; Mr. Kocharian was the president of Nagorno-Karabakh. Three and a half years later, in March 1997, Mr. Kocharian was appointed prime minister of Armenia. Mr. Sargsian was considered one of Armenia's best ministers, whether he held the portfolio of defense, internal affairs, or security. Even Mr. Ter-Petrossian could not deny this and publicly confirmed this fact when he ran against Mr. Sargsian in the 2008 presidential election.

Having a very independent and charismatic personality, Mr. Kocharian always remained an independent statesman, never coming under anyone else's shadow or influence. Even though Nagorno-Karabakh was politically and economically dependent upon Armenia, Mr. Kocharian as president of Karabakh was able to maintain a level of independence and remained somewhat outside the influence of the ANM and Mr. Ter-Petrossian.

Only a few months after moving to Armenia as prime minister, Mr. Kocharian implemented a palace revolution, headed by the late Vazgen Sarkissian, who was very influential at that time. Mr. Sargsian did not play a principal role in Mr. Ter-Petrossian's resignation.

Moreover, from 1993 to 1998 Mr. Sargsian was one of the state figures loyal to Mr. Ter-Petrossian. After the infamous rigged elections of 1996, when the opposition attacked the National Assembly, Mr. Sargsian was one of the few who stayed with Mr. Ter-Petrossian until the end.

Three different people

After 1998, when Mr. Ter-Petrossian was forced to resign, Mr. Sargsian, unlike many other figures, did not take part in mudslinging against the first president. That changed only at the beginning of this year, when Mr. Ter-Petrossian referred to the government led by Mr. Kocharian as president and Mr. Sargsian as prime minister with offensive words. It was then that Mr. Sargsian publicly accused Mr. Ter-Petrossian of trying to "hand over Karabakh." Even today, six months after Mr. Kocharian is no longer the president, Mr. Ter-Petrossian condemns him more sharply than he condemns the president in office.

There is an impression in certain circles of the opposition that Mr. Ter-Petrossian has lost his previous determination and, often sparing Mr. Sargsian, instead condemns Mr. Kocharian - even though the latter is no longer the president. In response, Mr. Sargsian has become more tolerant toward the opposition - unlike Mr. Kocharian, who even after April, when he was no longer the president, publicly condemned Mr. Ter-Petrossian in several interviews.

During public appearances Mr. Ter-Petrossian claims that Mr. Kocharian wishes to return to active politics.

During the September 15 rally, Mr. Ter-Petrossian directly said: "I believe Serge Sargsian realizes, understands that by appointing Robert Kocharian as prime minister he would have to accept the fact that he would instantly become the Queen of England, as Kocharian's character, in essence, cannot share authority. If he becomes prime minister, he will take control of all power. I hope Serge Sargsian realizes this fact."

No matter how friendly Mr. Sargsian and Mr. Kocharian may be, they are not the same person. Even in the struggle against Mr. Ter-Petrossian, their points of view are different. Mr. Kocharian has said that if he were president, then Mr. Ter-Petrossian would not be free; in other words, he would be in prison. President Sargsian, on the other hand, is trying to find common ground with the opposition. The evidence of this is the change in the method of dealing with those opposition figures imprisoned for apparently political reasons: the release of Vazgen Sarkissian's younger brother and the allocation of broadcasting time to the opposition. This is not to imply that Mr. Sargsian is being nice to the opposition. He believes, however, that it is not possible to have a smooth presidency using repressive methods.