Editorial Notebook: With respect and self-respect

by Vincent Lima

Published: Saturday September 13, 2008 in Editorial Notebook

Everyone was so nervous here in Yerevan in the days and hours leading to the much-anticipated Saturday-night soccer match between Armenia and Turkey. The Turkish president was coming to town, for the first time ever. No one knew - or knows today - where this visit will lead, but everyone knew it was a historic moment, a big deal, perhaps even a turning point.

It became real to me as I walked by the Marriott on Saturday morning and saw tall men in suits, each with a Turkish flag in his lapel and a walkie-talkie earphone plugged in one ear. The security service was on the job. I walked over to the nearby open-air market, the Vernissage, and in addition to the normal sounds of Eastern Armenian, Western Armenian, English, Russian, and French, there was the unfamiliar sound of Turkish.

A friend who's a journalist from Turkey told me that when she first visited the Armenian Genocide memorial and museum a few years ago, her colleagues had warned her that she was jeopardizing her career. This week, however, many of her colleagues had visited the complex, steps away from the soccer stadium where the national teams of Armenia and Turkey were to face off.

When evening came, thousands of people were walking to the stadium - much as hundreds of thousands walk along the same route to the Genocide memorial every April 24. But the atmosphere was different. For one thing, there were fewer women and fewer children than on April 24. For another, the mood was upbeat and festive. It was a soccer-game mood, even though few people expected Armenia's fast-improving soccer team to beat Turkey's well-established one.

Like hosting a long-lost brother?

Reading the local papers and watching television, one might not have known that Armenia has a long list of grievances against Turkey. A full-page ad in most papers offered a warm welcome to President Abdullah Gül but listed no specific expectations beyond a plea for "fair play" beyond the soccer field (whatever that means). The ARF's Armen Rustamian wasn't exaggerating when he said that everyone was acting like our long-lost brother was coming to visit.

The attitude seemed to be this: "It was a brave move for Mr. Gül to accept President Serge Sargsian's invitation in the face of anti-Armenian agitation by Turkey's ultranationalists. So let's not make it any harder for him."

This attitude reflects Armenia's longstanding desire to have good relations with its neighbors. As a landlocked country in a tough neighborhood, Armenia cannot allow itself to be isolated. But of course that does not mean we should roll over and pretend nothing's the matter.

By late Saturday afternoon, however, it was clear that Armenians were going to greet Mr. Gül not only with respect but also with self-respect. The ARF brought out thousands of people - young and old alike, but mostly young - who lined the streets leading to the presidential palace. They carried posters and banners remembering where they came from: "I am from Kars." "I am from Van." A beautiful idea, the posters invoked the shared heritage of Armenians and Turks (and Kurds, for that matter) - as well as the Genocide. The banners and posters also explicitly reiterated, "1915 is not forgotten," and called for justice.

A new policy in the making?

Turkey 15 years ago closed the border with Armenia to choke Armenians into submission in Karabakh. Mr. Gül and his colleagues must see that this tactic failed. They may now believe that establishing diplomatic relations and opening the border would give them more influence over Armenia. But the unacceptable preconditions Turkey has long set for these steps hamper progress. The challenge is to find a formula (e.g., "the border remains closed, but just as the air corridor is open, the rail corridor will be opened") that will allow a shift. That may or may not happen.

In the meantime, Mr. Gül must figure that the very act of visiting Armenia and engaging in bilateral talks will gain Turkey credibility as a regional powerbroker.

Domestically, Mr. Gül and his party face vocal and powerful opposition from ultranationalists who do not hesitate to stoke anti-Armenian hatred for political gain. Mr. Gül and his colleagues may have calculated, however, that the risk they take here mitigates a greater risk of later popular anger toward their party: they will continue to face uphill battles against the Armenian Genocide resolution in the U.S. Congress, particularly if there is an Obama administration; steps toward reconciliation with Armenia may help Turkey persuade elected officials in the United States that the Genocide resolution is untimely.

Meanwhile, here in Armenia, we saw how the war in Georgia disrupted Armenia's main supply routes. The war demonstrated the importance to Armenia of developing alternative routes. But it also demonstrated that Russia has the armed forces and the political will to maintain its traditional sphere of influence - which makes it significantly less likely that anyone will challenge it militarily again in the Caucasus anytime soon. Certainly, the United States, Europe, and NATO have lost any credibility they may have had as guarantors of the security of countries on the periphery of Russia. So while an open border with Turkey is important, it is not desperately important.