A time to rebuild confidence

Published: Saturday March 22, 2008

The declared 20-day state of emergency in Armenia came to an end yesterday without incident. There have been some changes in the political landscape over the last three weeks. We review these changes and ask what more needs to be done by various entities in Armenia, by the United States government, and by Armenian-Americans in order to move forward.

On March 8, Armenia's Constitutional Court affirmed the outcome of the February 19 presidential election. Its verdict is final and not subject to appeal. Thus, all who speak of the rule of law must accept president-elect Serge Sargsian's mandate to govern.

Those who supported other candidates or questioned the election process must now move on to what parties out of power do between elections in all democracies: criticize policies with which they disagree, propose alternatives, and organize for the next scheduled elections (which are municipal elections later this year).

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The focus of public attention has shifted from the election to the assessment of responsibility for the deaths and mayhem of March 1 and 2. People across the political spectrum are asking valid questions about how things came to this and about the use of lethal force by police and security forces.

These questions must be addressed promptly and in a credible manner. That's the right thing to do, and there are lessons to be learned. Moreover, if the questions are not answered credibly, this matter will fester as a moral and political wound. The opposition will use it to mobilize outrage and distrust toward the president, the security forces, the prosecutors, the courts, and the rule of law in general. The government may use it to suppress future peaceful protests.

In response to recommendations that an independent prosecutor be appointed, President Kocharian said on March 20 that the prosecutor general is independent: he is chosen by parliament for a six-year term and is not subject to being fired by the president. Mr. Kocharian added that foreign forensic experts have been asked to join the investigation.

The president was open, however, to fact-finding beyond the law-enforcement role of the prosecutor general. And indeed, there may be organizations and individuals inside and outside Armenia that bear responsibility that's political, not criminal.

The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, who last week carried out a three-day investigation in Armenia, recommended establishing a domestic commission of inquiry. He noted that in other European countries, such commissions have heard "all involved actors and affected victims" as well as nongovernmental organizations and national human rights institutions. The process has "contributed to healing and reconciliation and has ensured a thorough investigation." This is a recommendation worth pursuing.

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During the state of emergency, the National Assembly amended Armenia's very permissive law on public rallies. Organizers now require prior permission for public gatherings, and permission can be denied if law-enforcement officials determine that the demonstration could turn violent or advocate violence. Similar restrictions are, of course, in place in many U.S. cities and elsewhere in the world.

In the aftermath of March 1-2, it appears highly unlikely that any political demonstrations will be sanctioned in the near future. The political opposition thus has a choice: to seek the path of political consultations and compromise, or to take to the streets illegally, triggering new clashes. Some political actors have opted for advocating the second route, in the long-held hope that street protests will be massive and security forces will disobey orders to disperse protesters, leading to a collapse of the government.

This threat to Armenia's stability and national security has driven responsible political leaders of all stripes to pursue the path of political dialogue.

Mr. Sargsian's effort to form a broad coalition has continued with some success. Artur Baghdasarian, who came in third place in the presidential election, agreed on February 29 to join the government along with his Country of Laws Party. This week, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation agreed to join a government of "national reconciliation" on certain terms. This is a bold move for both parties, which in the interests of stability and national security risk losing their credibility as alternatives to Mr. Sargsian's Republican Party of Armenia. The Heritage Party, with 7 members of parliament, remains the only opposition party in the National Assembly.

There are also nonpartisan members of parliament who are part of the opposition. Chief among them is Victor Dallakian of Vanadzor, who successfully led parliamentary opposition to a move, late last year, to take U.S.-funded Radio Liberty off Armenia's public radio. Mr. Dallakian this week proposed a number of steps that the government could take to end what he sees as a political impasse. He deserves praise for promoting constructive engagement.

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Armenia's friends - Armenian-Americans and members of Congress - have worked very hard to build U.S.-Armenia relations over the years. True, the Bush administration's record on Armenia leaves a lot to be desired. But the United States has been generous in its support, based on shared values, shared interests, and Armenia's performance. The $235.6 million, five-year Millennium Challenge Contract is a good example of that sort of support.

In response to the events of March 1-2 and the declaration of a state of emergency, the U.S. government put pressure on the Armenian government "to uphold the rule of law, lift the state of emergency, and restore press freedoms." It threatened to suspend or terminate the Millennium Challenge program and other aid.

In view of the Bush administration's record, the Armenian government must look carefully at advice from the United States to make sure it is indeed rooted in mutual interests and values.