How to avoid war in the Caucasus

Published: Saturday November 17, 2007

“Map of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding seven districts,” from “Nagorno-Karbakh: Risking War,” Europe Report No. 187 (14 Nov. 2007), issued by International Crisis Group, p. 21.

A report released this week by the influential International Crisis Group warns that Azerbaijan may unleash war against Armenia and Karabakh, with "a risk of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years."

Azerbaijan is in the midst of a multiyear weapons-buying spree, paid for by skyrocketing oil revenues. War against Armenia and Karabakh, however, would almost certainly interrupt the flow of oil through the pipeline that connects the Caspian oilfields to the Mediterranean. Thus neither Azerbaijani oilmen nor Western stakeholders have an interest in the resumption of hostilities.

But Azerbaijan's oil boom will not last forever, the Crisis Group report notes. BP calculates production and revenue intake will peak around 2011-12. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that oil revenue will peak as a proportion of GDP in 2009 and begin declining thereafter. "Combined with economic mismanagement and corruption, Azerbaijan could find itself in a difficult position in less than eight years," the report says.

If "the public concludes it has not experienced the anticipated improvements" in living conditions, "the government may be tempted to adopt a radical nationalist agenda and even resume hostilities in order to divert displeasure."

Thus, looking at the not-too-distant future, the report warns that "Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution" by about 2012.

The report says that Azerbaijan "seems to want to postpone any peace deal until the military balance has shifted decisively in its favour." Meanwhile, Armenia "believes that time is on its side, that Nagorno-Karabakh's de facto independence will become a reality increasingly difficult to ignore," the report says. It warns that "playing for time is dangerous for all concerned."

Although the report calls on all sides to work harder toward a peaceful settlement, it starts with the premise that Azerbaijan's military buildup is inevitable and determinative, and the burden is on Armenia to make concessions; the point that it misses is that Azerbaijan too needs to better appreciate what it is putting at risk.

Armenians at great cost stopped Azerbaijan's first military onslaught in the early 1990s. Azerbaijan aimed to solve the Karabakh problem - the demand of the overwhelming majority of the population for independence from Azerbaijan - by expelling or killing the Armenians. Armenians defended their homes and, going beyond the boundaries of the Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, captured a security belt to end the hostilities.

The proposal favored by the Crisis Group is to have Karabakh hand over these territories to Azerbaijan, admit foreign peacekeepers, and allow the return of Azerbaijanis who fled the republic in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Azerbaijan would promise to refrain from another onslaught against Karabakh and would reopen transport and trade routes that have gone unused for two decades. It would also agree to a referendum sometime in the future in which the final status of Karabakh would be determined.

If Armenians were to agree to this proposal, they would still face the threat of renewed hostilities initiated by Azerbaijan. As the Crisis Group report acknowledges, "Military analysts argue that the current frontline's geography is Armenia's most important strategic advantage."

Come 2012 - or any other time the temptations of war were strong - Azerbaijan's leaders could launch attacks on Karabakh, which would be in a significantly weaker position to defend itself. The presence of peacekeepers may not be a sufficient deterrent to Azerbaijan in this situation.

Insofar as the United States and Europe want to avert war in the region, the appropriate response to Azerbaijan's continuing military buildup would be unequivocal condemnation and real pressure to stop. It's act now or suffer the consequences later.