Turkey plays with fire in northern Iraq

Published: Saturday June 16, 2007

Turkey’s armed forces have been building up their presence along the border with Iraq. The top generals are eager to cross the border into the Kurdish-administered northeast of that war-torn country.

That is the one relatively calm region in Iraq today. Kurdish leaders there cooperated with the U.S. armed forces and have since maintained excellent relations with the United States. But Kurdistan spans Turkey and Iran as well as Iraq, and Kurdish autonomy is seen as a threat by Turkey and Iran. They worry that Iraqi Kurdistan will serve as a base for Kurdish liberation movements in their countries.

On June 6, hundreds of Turkish soldiers crossed the border, allegedly in hot pursuit of Kurdish guerrillas. They are said to have returned to Turkey the same day. Meanwhile, the New Anatolian reports that the Iranian and Turkish militaries are continuing to coordinate artillery shelling of Kurdish refugees in Iraq.

Turkish and Iranian military activity in the one part of Iraq that is relatively peaceful is the last thing the United States wants to see. Failure to protect Iraqi Kurdistan would embarrass the United States and undermine its alliance with Iraqi Kurds. The U.S. secretaries of defense and state have repeatedly urged Turkey to stay out of Iraq. Last week, Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, told The Associated Press, “a robust move across the border” would benefit no one.

But even a less-than-robust move has the potential to have unforeseen consequences.

The Turkish military’s push for an invasion of Iraq is closely tied with its broader struggle for continued dominance in Turkey. Threatening a coup, it managed a few weeks ago to derail the election, by parliament, of the ruling party’s nominee for president. Now, the decision to send tens of thousands of troops across the border – as the generals want and as Turkey has done three times since the early 1990s – requires the approval of that same parliament.

The leader of the ruling party, Prime Minister Erdogan, has opposed such a move. On June 12, he said, “Has the struggle against 5,000 terrorists inside Turkey come to a close so that we can now start dealing with the 500 in northern Iraq?”

But the Turkish military and ultranationalist circles will continue to put pressure on Mr. Erdogan, and to use this matter to discredit him and his party. Indeed, the military orchestrated antigovernment demonstrations last week to protest what it considers a weak stance against terrorists.

The risk of a large regional conflagration – on Armenia’s borders – is very real. A Turkish invasion would be met bitterly by Iraqi Arabs as well as Kurds. If Iran is not involved from the start, it is likely to be drawn in quickly.

The warnings issued so far by U.S. officials have not been enough to stop the Turkish military’s saber-rattling; nor did they stop last week’s cross-border troop movement. The Turkish generals need to receive an unequivocal message from their U.S. counterparts that northern Iraq is off limits to them.

Turkey is adept at stressing its importance to the United States as an ally. It is at a time like this that the alliance is tested.